Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Pick – 5/23/2025

In a pivotal American League West matchup, the Houston Astros host the Seattle Mariners on May 23, 2025. Both teams come into this game with solid records—Houston at 26-24 and Seattle at 28-21. The Astros are currently ranked 18th in offense and 15th in team batting average, while the Mariners boast a better offensive ranking at 10th overall, though they’re struggling a bit with a batting average that ranks 21st. The Mariners have been particularly potent with home runs, ranking 6th in the league with 66 long balls this season.

Houston is set to send Ryan Gusto to the mound, who has had a rocky season with a 4.65 ERA and a 3-2 record. Despite being ranked 180th among MLB starters, Gusto’s underlying metrics, such as a 4.04 SIERA, suggest he may improve soon. He projects to pitch around 4.8 innings today, with expectations of allowing 2.3 earned runs. However, Gusto's high flyball rate (40 FB%) could be problematic against a powerful Mariners lineup capable of capitalizing on mistakes.

On the other side, Emerson Hancock will take the mound for Seattle. Despite a rough ERA of 6.21, projections indicate a potential for better performance. Hancock is expected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs. While he has struggled, he has been lucky, as his xFIP stands at 4.23.

In their last outing, the Astros defeated the Mariners at home. With both bullpens ranked in the top 10, this matchup promises to be closely contested, and the Astros’ implied team total of 4.35 runs suggests that oddsmakers believe they can pull out a win in this tight contest.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Because flyball batters hold a big advantage over groundball pitchers, Emerson Hancock and his 33.8% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult spot in this game being matched up with 3 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme groundball hitters like Jorge Polanco usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Gusto.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Projected catcher Cal Raleigh profiles as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Considering the 1.49 discrepancy between Ryan Gusto's 9.29 K/9 and his 7.80 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the game this year when it comes to strikeouts and figures to perform worse going forward.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Jeremy Pena has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Houston Astros batters as a group rank among the worst in MLB this year ( worst) in regard to their 88.1-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 39 games (+7.42 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 37 games (+8.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.35 Units / 44% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.71, Houston Astros 4.37

• Date: May 23, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Emerson Hancock - Mariners
  • Ryan Gusto - Astros

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