Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Pick – 5/22/2025

As the Seattle Mariners visit Minute Maid Park to face the Houston Astros on May 22, 2025, both teams are looking to gain traction in the American League West. The Astros sit under .500 at 25-24, while the Mariners are enjoying a strong season with a 28-20 record. In their most recent game, the Mariners had a solid performance, showcasing their offensive capabilities, which rank 10th in the league.

Today's matchup has the Mariners sending George Kirby to the mound, who is projected as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB this season. His performance has been exceptional, especially considering he projects to allow an impressive 2.2 earned runs with 5.5 hits during an average outing. Kirby's ability to limit major damage could be crucial against a Houston lineup that has struggled, ranking 18th in offense and 22nd in home runs.

On the other side, the Astros will counter with Lance McCullers Jr., who, despite some signs of potential improvement, has had a rough season with a 0-1 record and a concerning ERA of 7.88. His xFIP of 6.80 suggests some misfortune, but facing a patient Mariners offense that ranks 2nd in walks could exacerbate his issues. McCullers Jr.'s high walk rate of 15.6% adds to the concern, as this could enable the Mariners to capitalize early in the game.

While the Astros have an average implied team total of 4.00 runs, the Mariners are projected higher at 4.50, indicating a betting market favoring Seattle. With Kirby’s strong form and the Astros’ ongoing struggles, Seattle appears well-positioned to take the series lead in this important matchup.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

George Kirby will have the handedness advantage against 8 opposing bats today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

J.P. Crawford has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (61% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Seattle Mariners hitters as a unit grade out 4th- in baseball for power this year when judging by their 10.7% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Lance McCullers Jr. has accumulated a measly 6 strikeouts over his last 3 outings.

• A pitcher who has struggled in his most recent outings may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Cam Smith has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.4-mph to 101.3-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46.1% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.40 Units / 64% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 38 games (+9.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.50 Units / 61% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.64, Houston Astros 3.63

• Date: May 22, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • George Kirby - Mariners
  • Lance McCullers Jr. - Astros

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