Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Betting Pick & Preview – 9/23/2024

• Date: September 23, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners
  • Hunter Brown - Astros

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the American League West rivals Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners gear up for a crucial matchup on September 23, 2024, the stakes are high. The Astros, with an 85-71 record, are on the cusp of locking down a playoff spot, while the Mariners, sitting at 80-76, are looking to stay in the hunt and hope to make a late playoff push.

Both teams are coming off losses, with the Astros narrowly losing 9-8 to the Angels, and the Mariners falling 6-5 against the Rangers. This game at Minute Maid Park marks the first in their series and could be pivotal for both teams' postseason aspirations.

On the mound, the Astros will start Hunter Brown, who ranks as the 36th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Brown's season has been solid, with an 11-8 record and a commendable 3.57 ERA. Despite allowing too many hits and walks in his projections, he managed a strong performance in his last outing, surrendering just two earned runs over six innings against Anaheim.

The Mariners will counter with Bryce Miller, whose 3.06 ERA suggests a great season, although his 3.83 xFIP indicates he might have been somewhat fortunate. Miller also boasts an 11-8 record but could struggle against an Astros lineup that ranks 3rd in team batting average and possesses a top 10 offense.

Offensively, Houston's Yordan Alvarez has been a standout all season, while Kyle Tucker is red-hot, batting .524 with two homers over the past week. Meanwhile, Mariners slugger Randy Arozarena and the surging Julio Rodriguez will look to keep Seattle's playoff hopes alive.

With Houston favored by bookmakers and projected to score 4.75 runs, they hold a slight edge. However, given the game's importance and the Mariners’ determination, the battle on the field promises to be intense.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller has tallied 17.3 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 80th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

This season, Luke Raley has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.8 mph compared to last year's 94.7 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hunter Brown's higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (52.7 compared to 46.1% last season) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Kyle Tucker's true offensive talent to be a .372, indicating that he has been lucky this year given the .051 disparity between that figure and his actual .423 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Jon Singleton hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 8th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 135 games (+15.00 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 57 away games (+16.20 Units / 26% ROI)
• Justin Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 25% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.23 vs Houston Astros 4.75

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