Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/15/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: August 15, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners
  • Alex Faedo - Tigers

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners visit Comerica Park to face the Detroit Tigers on August 15, 2024, both teams find themselves in the middle of a tight series. With the Mariners sitting at 63-58, they are having an above-average season, while the Tigers, at 58-63, are struggling and are well below average this year.

In this matchup, the Mariners will send Bryce Miller to the mound, who has been solid this season with a 3.46 ERA and a respectable 9-7 record over 23 starts. Despite his above-average ranking as the 78th best starting pitcher in MLB, projections suggest he might be due for a slight regression, as his xFIP sits at 3.98, indicating he has been a bit fortunate. On the other hand, Alex Faedo, projected to start for the Tigers, has had a tough year in a relief role, with a 3.62 ERA but ranked 242nd among starting pitchers. His projections are concerning, as he is expected to pitch only 2.9 innings today, allowing an average of 1.6 earned runs.

Offensively, the Tigers rank 26th in MLB, with their best hitter, Matt Vierling, showing some promise lately, hitting .313 with a .938 OPS over the last week. The Mariners, however, have struggled offensively as well, ranking 27th overall, but they do have a respectable 14th ranking in home runs.

While the Tigers are currently underdogs with a moneyline of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives them a slightly better chance at 47%. This indicates there might be value in betting on the Tigers, especially given their potential to surprise against a Mariners team that has been inconsistent.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller's 2479-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a notable 112-rpm decrease from last season's 2591-rpm rate.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Victor Robles has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.4-mph dropping to 81.6-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Today, Dylan Moore is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.4% rate (97th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Alex Faedo to be limited in this game, projecting a maximum of 61 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Zach McKinstry has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .195 rate is a fair amount lower than his .241 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jake Rogers (the Tigers's expected catcher today) projects as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 49 games (+11.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 48 away games (+8.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• Bryce Miller has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+7.70 Units / 29% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.02 vs Detroit Tigers 4.38

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.