Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/19/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies Overview

• Date: April 19, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Emerson Hancock - Mariners
  • Dakota Hudson - Rockies
• Run Line: Mariners -1.5 115, Rockies 1.5 -135
• Money Line: Mariners -135, Rockies 115
• Total (Over/Under):10.5 -110

Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Seattle Mariners - 55%
• Colorado Rockies - 45%

Projected Win %:

• Seattle Mariners - 52.33%
• Colorado Rockies - 47.67%

Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated matchup, the Colorado Rockies are set to take on the Seattle Mariners at Coors Field on April 19, 2024. As the home team, the Rockies will be looking to turn their season around, while the Mariners aim to continue their steady performance. This Interleague game marks the first in a series between these two teams.

The Rockies have had a tough season so far, with a record of 4-15. Their struggles can be attributed to a below-average offense, ranking 17th in MLB, with a team batting average of .247. However, their bullpen has been a bright spot, ranked 10th best in the league according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Taking the mound for the Rockies is right-handed pitcher Dakota Hudson. Despite having a record of 0-3 this year, Hudson has shown promise with an ERA of 4.15. However, his peripheral indicator, SIERA, suggests that he has been fortunate and may regress going forward. Hudson is a low-strikeout pitcher, facing a Mariners offense that ranks second in strikeouts in MLB, which could work in his favor.

On the other side, the Mariners have had a slightly better season with a record of 9-10. Their offense, ranked 24th in MLB, has been led by standout performances from their best hitter, Josh Rojas. Over the last seven games, Rojas has recorded a .300 batting average and a 1.162 OPS, providing a spark for the Mariners.

The Mariners will send right-handed pitcher Emerson Hancock to the mound. Hancock has struggled this season with an ERA of 7.98, but his xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could improve going forward. He will face a Rockies offense that ranks third in strikeouts in MLB, which plays to Hancock's strength as a low-strikeout pitcher.

In terms of the betting market, the Rockies are considered the underdogs with a moneyline of +115, implying a 45% win probability. The Mariners, with a moneyline of -135, have a 55% win probability. THE BAT X projects a close game, giving the Rockies a 46% win probability and the Mariners a 54% win probability.

With a high Game Total of 10.5 runs, both teams are expected to have offensive opportunities. THE BAT X projects the Rockies to score an average of 4.93 runs, while the Mariners are projected to score 5.62 runs.

As the game unfolds, the Rockies will look to overcome their struggles and take advantage of the Mariners' weaknesses. The outcome of this matchup will depend on the performance of the starting pitchers and the offensive contributions from both teams.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Emerson Hancock has gone to his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 61.6% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Mitch Garver is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Seattle Mariners bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The Colorado Rockies outfield defense profiles as the strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

This year, there has been a decline in Elias Diaz's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.03 ft/sec last year to 23.64 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Brenton Doyle ranks in the 8th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 62 games at home (+8.85 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 41 away games (+10.97 Units / 23% ROI)
• Mitch Haniger has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+8.40 Units / 47% ROI)

Mariners vs Rockies Prediction: Mariners 5.58 - Rockies 5.04

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