Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 4/15/2025

Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

On April 15, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Seattle Mariners at Great American Ball Park. Both teams enter this Interleague matchup with identical records of 8-8, indicating a rather average start to the season. The Reds, however, have struggled offensively, ranking 28th in MLB, while the Mariners sit at 20th.

Cincinnati's Nick Lodolo is projected to take the mound, boasting an impressive ERA of 0.96, which is well below his 4.23 xFIP, suggesting he has been fortunate in his early outings. In three starts this season, Lodolo has a strong 2-1 record and has shown solid control with a low walk rate of just 1.4 BB%. He projects to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs. This matchup may favor Lodolo, especially against a Mariners offense that ranks among the top in walks but may struggle to capitalize due to his good control.

On the opposite side, Seattle will counter with Luis Castillo, who has had a solid start to the season as well, posting a 2.12 ERA in three starts. However, similar to Lodolo, Castillo's xFIP of 3.90 indicates he may not sustain this level of performance. He projects to pitch roughly 5.8 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs, which aligns with his efficiency thus far.

The game total is set at an average 8.5 runs, reflecting the competitive nature of this matchup. Cincinnati's odds show a +100 moneyline, suggesting a close contest. With both pitchers having excellent early-season performances, this game may hinge on which offense can break through and support their starter effectively.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Luis Castillo is an extreme groundball pitcher (42.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue among all parks — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Dylan Moore is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Lodolo's curveball utilization has fallen by 5.3% from last year to this one (27.3% to 22%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Jake Fraley has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jose Trevino (the Reds's expected catcher today) grades out as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 83 of their last 143 games (+15.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 53 away games (+15.40 Units / 26% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.96, Cincinnati Reds 4.32

• Date: April 15, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds

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