Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox Prediction – 5/19/2025

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on May 19, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with starkly different narratives. The White Sox, languishing at 14-33, are enduring a season to forget, while the Mariners stand at a respectable 26-19, showcasing their potential as contenders.

On the mound, the White Sox will send out Davis Martin, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled to find consistency this season. Martin has a Win/Loss record of 2-4 and ranks as the 273rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. His projections suggest he will pitch around 4.9 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs, which is below average. The White Sox bullpen has also been rated as the 30th best in MLB, further complicating their chances.

Contrastingly, the Mariners will counter with Luis Castillo, who holds a more favorable position as the 89th best starting pitcher. Castillo's projections indicate he will pitch approximately 5.9 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs. His ability to generate strikeouts will be vital against a White Sox offense ranked 30th in MLB, lacking power and consistently struggling to produce runs.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, the Mariners are favored with a moneyline of -205, while the White Sox sit as underdogs at +175. Given the current projections and team performances, this could be a significant opportunity for Seattle to continue their strong season against a White Sox squad that appears to be fighting an uphill battle.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Luis Castillo has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 66.5% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Among all starters, Davis Martin's fastball spin rate of 2399 rpm is in the 78th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The 4th-weakest projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the Chicago White Sox.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games at home (+6.70 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 away games (+10.00 Units / 51% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.05, Chicago White Sox 3.94

• Date: May 19, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
  • Davis Martin - White Sox

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