Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick & Preview – 7/27/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: July 27, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • Erick Fedde - White Sox

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners will face off against the Chicago White Sox in the second game of their series on July 27, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Mariners, who are having an average season with a 54-51 record, look to solidify their playoff hopes, while the White Sox, at 27-79, are enduring a dismal season. Yesterday, the Mariners took the first game, continuing their push for a postseason berth.

On the mound for the White Sox will be Erick Fedde, whose season has been a bright spot in an otherwise dark campaign. Fedde holds a 7-3 record with an impressive 2.98 ERA, although his 3.89 xFIP suggests he might be benefiting from some luck. The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, indicates that Fedde's expected performance today should be average, with 5.6 innings pitched and 2.5 earned runs allowed. However, his high strikeout rate (6.2 per game) could make a significant impact against a struggling Mariners offense, which ranks 30th in team batting average.

Bryan Woo will take the mound for the Mariners, boasting an excellent 2.54 ERA, though his 4.06 xFIP also raises questions about whether his results are sustainable. Woo has a 4-1 record in his 10 starts this season. The projections peg Woo for 5.2 innings and 2.0 earned runs today, indicating a slightly better performance than Fedde. His low strikeout projection (4.9) should be watched closely.

Offensively, both teams have their issues. Chicago ranks 30th in overall offense, 29th in batting average, and 28th in home runs, struggling mightily at the plate. Seattle isn't much better, ranking 28th in overall offense and last in batting average, though their power, evident in their 14th-place ranking in home runs, gives them an edge.

Given Seattle's slight edge on the mound and in the bullpen, combined with their better power numbers, the Mariners are favored today with an implied win probability of 57%. Look for Seattle to leverage their advantages and continue their playoff push against a struggling White Sox team.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryan Woo's higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (78.6 compared to 72.4% last year) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

In comparison to his 89.6-mph average last year, Cal Raleigh's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 92.3 mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners's expected catcher today) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Chicago White Sox.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Andrew Benintendi has been unlucky this year, posting a .246 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .312 — a .066 disparity.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen grades out as the worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 74 games (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 away games (+6.40 Units / 29% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.75 Units / 52% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.47 vs Chicago White Sox 3.71

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