Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick & Preview – 7/26/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: July 26, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • George Kirby - Mariners
  • Drew Thorpe - White Sox

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

The Chicago White Sox, anchored at the bottom of the standings with a dismal 27-78 record, are set to host the Seattle Mariners, who sport a middling 53-51 mark, on July 26, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox are having a season to forget, while the Mariners remain in the mix with a chance to make some noise in the American League.

Drew Thorpe will take the mound for Chicago. While his 3.03 ERA looks impressive, his 5.18 xFIP suggests he may have been riding on luck. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, ranks him as the #111 starting pitcher, solidly average. Thorpe has a 3-1 record in his 7 starts this season but faces a high-strikeout Seattle offense that leads MLB in strikeouts, potentially giving him an edge.

George Kirby, Seattle's ace, boasts a 3.20 ERA and holds a #12 ranking among starting pitchers. Kirby's performance has been solid, with a 7-7 record over 21 starts. His projections for today include 6.1 innings pitched and just 2.1 earned runs allowed, indicating a likely strong showing. Kirby's low-walk rate (2.6 BB%) could be tested against a White Sox lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB for the fewest walks.

Offensively, both teams are struggling. The White Sox rank dead last in batting average and overall offensive talent, while Seattle is not far ahead, ranking 28th. The Mariners do, however, have some pop, sitting at 14th in home runs, compared to the White Sox’s 28th rank. Over the last week, Mitch Haniger has been Seattle's standout hitter with a .885 OPS and a home run in his last four games. For Chicago, Korey Lee has been the bright spot, hitting one home run in his last six games.

The White Sox bullpen, the worst in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, is another sore point for Chicago. Seattle's bullpen, though not elite, is still ranked 21st, providing them with a relative advantage.

Oddsmakers have the Mariners as favorites with a -155 moneyline, equating to a 59% implied win probability, while the White Sox stand at +135, giving them a 41% chance. The game total is set at a modest 7.5 runs, reflecting the offensive struggles of both teams. Given Kirby's edge on the mound and the overall superior quality of the Mariners' pitching, Seattle looks well-positioned to take the first game of this series.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Out of all SPs, George Kirby's fastball velocity of 95.2 mph is in the 86th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Victor Robles has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher in today's game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Andrew Thorpe projects to average 4.5 hits in today's game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Eloy Jimenez has seen a big increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.4-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 92.2-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen ranks as the worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 61 games (+6.25 Units / 8% ROI)
• Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+7.70 Units / 80% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.23 vs Chicago White Sox 3.31

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