Seattle Mariners vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 6/22/2025

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on June 22, 2025, both teams are looking to capitalize on their recent performances. The Cubs are riding high after a thrilling 10-7 victory over the Mariners just a day prior, which marked their 46-30 record for the season, showcasing their strong offensive capabilities. In contrast, the Mariners sit at 38-37, having struggled to find consistency this year.

On the mound, the Cubs will send Colin Rea to the hill, who has had a decent season with a 4-2 record and a solid 3.84 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a regression, as his 4.94 xERA indicates he’s been somewhat fortunate thus far. Rea projects to pitch only 4.9 innings today, allowing an average of 3.6 earned runs, which could be problematic against a potent Cubs lineup that ranks 4th in MLB offensively and 5th in home runs.

Opposing him will be Logan Gilbert, who has been exceptional this season with a 2.55 ERA and a strong strikeout rate—projecting 6.1 strikeouts today. Gilbert's performance has been marred by some bad luck, as indicated by his 1.65 xFIP, suggesting he could improve further. The Mariners, while ranked 10th in offensive prowess, will need Gilbert to be at his best to keep pace with the Cubs' high-scoring attack.

With the Game Total set at a hefty 12.0 runs and both teams boasting high implied team totals of 6.00 runs, this matchup promises plenty of action. Betting markets see this as a close contest, and with the Cubs' strong offensive rankings, they may have the edge to come out on top once again.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert's 94.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.8-mph decline from last season's 96.6-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Chicago's #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Cal Raleigh, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The 9.1% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners grades them out as the #10 squad in the game this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Colin Rea is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #22 HR venue in the league today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Carson Kelly has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 31 games at home (+8.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 71 games (+7.05 Units / 9% ROI)
• Matt Shaw has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 54% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 6.56, Chicago Cubs 5.8

• Date: June 22, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
  • Colin Rea - Cubs

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