Seattle Mariners vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 6/21/2025

On June 21, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the Seattle Mariners at Wrigley Field for the second game of their interleague series. The Cubs are in solid form, boasting a record of 45-30 this season and ranking as the 4th best offense in MLB. In contrast, the Mariners sit at 38-36, having an average season and ranking 14th in offensive production.

Cubs' pitcher Cade Horton is projected to take the mound, bringing a 3-1 record and a commendable ERA of 3.47 this season. While Horton ranks 121st among starting pitchers, he has been effective, even if the projections indicate he may struggle today, projecting just 4.4 innings with 2.9 earned runs allowed. The Cubs offense, however, is in a strong position, especially with their power numbers—ranking 5th in home runs and 6th in batting average. This potent lineup is expected to capitalize on Horton’s solid form and the Mariners' inconsistent pitching.

Seattle will counter with Emerson Hancock, who has struggled this season, with a 3-2 record and a higher ERA of 4.48. His projection for today is just as concerning, as he is expected to pitch 4.4 innings while allowing 3.7 earned runs. The Cubs should look to exploit Hancock's weaknesses against a Mariners offense that ranks 20th in batting average, but does have a decent power output, ranking 10th in home runs.

The Cubs enter this matchup as heavy favorites with a moneyline of -165, reflecting their strong lineup and home-field advantage. With an implied team total of 6.69 runs, it seems likely they will take control of this game, especially if their hitters can perform as they have in recent outings.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Emerson Hancock is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #22 HR venue among all major league parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Randy Arozarena's average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 91.7-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 80.3-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 9.1% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners makes them the #10 squad in the league this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Cade Horton's high utilization percentage of his fastball (53.4% this year) is likely weakening his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Typically, batters like Kyle Tucker who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Emerson Hancock.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 68 games (+9.65 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 70 games (+6.05 Units / 8% ROI)
• Matt Shaw has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 54% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 6.32, Chicago Cubs 6.98

• Date: June 21, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Emerson Hancock - Mariners
  • Cade Horton - Cubs

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