Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/31/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: July 31, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • George Kirby - Mariners
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

On July 31, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will host the Seattle Mariners at Fenway Park for the third game in their series. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Red Sox holding a 56-49 record and the Mariners at 56-52. This American League matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Brayan Bello for Boston and George Kirby for Seattle.

The Red Sox have been impressive offensively, ranking 4th in team batting average, 7th in home runs, and 6th in stolen bases. Their offense has been clicking, and over the last week, Tyler O'Neill has been their standout performer. O'Neill has played in 5 games, recording 7 hits, 5 runs, 9 RBIs, and 4 home runs, boasting a .333 batting average and an eye-popping 1.395 OPS.

On the other hand, the Mariners have struggled with consistency at the plate, ranking 30th in team batting average. However, they are middle-of-the-pack in power, ranking 14th in home runs. Randy Arozarena has been a bright spot for Seattle over the last week, playing in 6 games and tallying 7 hits, 7 runs, 1 home run, and 2 stolen bases. Arozarena's recent performance includes a .368 batting average and a 1.132 OPS.

Pitching-wise, Brayan Bello will look to continue his solid season for the Red Sox. George Kirby will aim to keep the Mariners competitive, but he will have his hands full against a potent Boston lineup. The projections favor the Red Sox slightly, given their offensive firepower and recent form. With both teams jockeying for playoff positioning, this game carries significant weight. Keep an eye on the pitching duel and whether the Mariners can overcome their offensive woes to steal a win at Fenway.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The Boston Red Sox have 6 batters in the projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against George Kirby today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme flyball bats like Jorge Polanco usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jorge Polanco pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Brayan Bello's 95.2-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 86th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Masataka Yoshida has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (57% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

It may be best to expect worse results for the Boston Red Sox offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the luckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 66 games (+12.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 away games (+8.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.00 Units / 33% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.03 vs Boston Red Sox 4.86

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