Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/30/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: July 30, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
  • James Paxton - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

Fenway Park will host a key American League matchup on July 30, 2024, as the Boston Red Sox welcome the Seattle Mariners for the second game of their series. Both teams have displayed above-average seasons, with the Red Sox holding a 56-49 record and the Mariners trailing closely at 56-52. This game could be pivotal for both teams as they look to strengthen their playoff standings.

Starting for Boston is left-hander James Paxton, who has been fortunate this season with an 8-2 record and a 4.43 ERA, though his underlying stats suggest regression. His 5.30 xFIP indicates that his ERA could be misleading, pointing to luck playing a role in his performance. On the flip side, Paxton has been a low-strikeout pitcher (16.4 K%) but might find success against a strikeout-prone Mariners lineup, ranked 1st in MLB for strikeouts.

Luis Castillo takes the mound for Seattle, bringing a solid 3.38 ERA despite his 8-10 record. Castillo, ranked 43rd among MLB starting pitchers according to THE BAT X, will look to shut down the Red Sox's high-powered offense. The Boston lineup ranks 4th in batting average and 7th in home runs, making this a challenging matchup for Castillo.

Offensively, the Red Sox have been led by Tyler O'Neill over the past week, boasting a .333 batting average and a stellar 1.395 OPS, along with 4 home runs. Meanwhile, Randy Arozarena has been the standout for Seattle, hitting .368 with a 1.132 OPS, 7 runs, and 2 stolen bases in his last six games.

Both bullpens could play a significant role, with Seattle's bullpen ranked 10th and Boston's at 17th in advanced-stat Power Rankings. The betting markets predict a close game, with the Mariners slightly favored at -120 and the Red Sox at +100. Given these odds, the Red Sox have a high implied team total of 4.64 runs, while the Mariners have an even higher total at 4.86 runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Luis Castillo’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2097 rpm) has been significantly lower than than his seasonal rate (2163 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Tyler Locklear has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.7-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 88.6-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Mitch Garver pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that James Paxton will post an average of 14.9 outs in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Tyler O'Neill has been very fortunate this year. His .381 rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .327.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

It may be smart to expect weaker performance for the Boston Red Sox offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the luckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 48 games (+13.35 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 23 away games (+9.40 Units / 36% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 13 away games (+18.10 Units / 139% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.59 vs Boston Red Sox 5.16

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.