Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/29/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: July 29, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As we head towards the matchup on July 29, 2024, between the Boston Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners at Fenway Park, both teams find themselves in the thick of the playoff race. The Red Sox, with a 55-49 record, are having an above-average season, while the Mariners, standing at 56-51, are also performing well. This game marks the first in their series, adding an extra layer of intrigue.

On the mound for Boston is Nick Pivetta, a right-handed pitcher who has started 16 games this year. Despite his 4-7 Win/Loss record and a 4.50 ERA, advanced metrics like his 3.34 xFIP suggest he's been a bit unlucky. Pivetta's high strikeout rate (29.5% K%) could play a crucial role against a Mariners lineup that leads MLB in strikeouts. Pivetta projects to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, while striking out 6.6 batters on average today.

Seattle counters with Logan Gilbert, their right-handed ace, who boasts a 2.72 ERA over 21 starts. However, his 3.39 xFIP indicates he's been somewhat fortunate this season. Gilbert projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs and striking out 5.7 batters on average today.

The Red Sox possess one of the most potent offenses in the league, ranking 4th in batting average, 7th in home runs, and 6th in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Mariners struggle offensively, ranking 30th in batting average and 27th overall. This mismatch could be pivotal, especially with Boston's Tyler O'Neill red-hot over the last week, hitting .429 with 4 home runs and a 1.578 OPS. On the other side, Cal Raleigh has been Seattle's standout, hitting .304 with 2 home runs and a 1.016 OPS over the last week.

Boston's bullpen ranks 19th, which is average, while Seattle's bullpen ranks 13th. Despite these average rankings, the Red Sox's superior offense and Pivetta's projected strikeout advantage give them a slight edge.

With the Red Sox currently favored with a moneyline of -120 and an implied win probability of 52%, betting markets expect a close game. However, given Boston's strong offensive potential and Pivetta's matchup advantage against a strikeout-prone Mariners lineup, the Red Sox appear well-positioned to take the first game of this series.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Recording 19.9 outs per start this year on average, Logan Gilbert places him the 100th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Josh Rojas is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jorge Polanco pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.4% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Nick Pivetta has gone to his slider 11.2% more often this year (28.6%) than he did last season (17.4%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Rafael Devers has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.2-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 94.3-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be best to expect worse results for the Boston Red Sox offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the luckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games (+8.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 away games (+7.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 30 games (+23.10 Units / 77% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.39 vs Boston Red Sox 4.74

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