Seattle Mariners vs Athletics Pick – 7/28/2025
The Seattle Mariners and the Sacramento Athletics are set to face off on Monday night at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. This game is the first of a three-game series between the two AL West teams. The Mariners hold a 2-1 advantage in their previous matchups but the Athletics are playing some solid baseball of late and will look to trip up the Mariners here. Continue reading to get my Mariners vs Athletics prediction before Friday’s game.
Our Mariners vs Athletics Pick
- Pick: Athletics Moneyline
- Confidence: 4 stars
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Seattle Mariners vs Athletics
- Date & Time: Monday, July 28, 2025, 10:05 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Luis Castillo vs JP Sears
- Stadium: Sutter Health Park, Sacramento, CA
- Broadcast: ROOT Sports Northwest (Mariners), NBC Sports California (Athletics)
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Luis Castillo has been a consistent force for the Mariners this season. He has a 7-6 record with a 3.30 ERA and 107 strikeouts. He has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his past six starts against the Athletics and will look to put together another strong start tonight. JP Sears has struggled for the A’s with a 7-8 record and a 4.98 ERA. His inconsistency makes him a vulnerable option against a potent Mariners lineup led by Cal Raleigh.
Key Players
- Mariners: Julio Rodríguez leads the Mariners’ offense with 111 hits. Cal Raleigh has been a power threat all year long. He has hit 41 home runs and driven in 86 runs. J.P. Crawford provides stability at shortstop with a .268 batting average and a .364 on-base percentage.
- Athletics: Nick Kurtz has been a standout performer for the Athletics. He is hitting .309 with 23 home runs and 59 RBIs. Jacob Wilson has also contributed significantly with a team-best .312 batting average.
Recent Team Streaks
The Mariners have a 5-5 record over their last 10 games. They split a four-game series against the Los Angeles Angels over the last four days. The Athletics are coming off of their best series of the season. They swept the Houston Astros over four games and outscored them 32-7 over that span.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Julio Rodríguez | Over 0.5 home runs |
| Cal Raleigh | Over 1.5 total bases |
| Nick Kurtz | Over 0.5 home runs |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Mariners lead the season series with the Athletics 4-3.
- Seattle has won the last two games between these teams heading into this matchup.
- Seattle is 28-26 on the road this year.
- The A’s are 20-31 in their temporary home in Sacramento.
Mariners vs Athletics Model Projection
Score Projection: Mariners 5 – Athletics 6
Win Probability: Mariners 52%, Athletics 48%
Final Thoughts
The Mariners are the better team with the better starting pitcher in this matchup. But the Athletics are playing better baseball right now and that should help them to steal a win at home over their division rivals. I expect the offense of the A’s to continue its recent surge and for the Athletics to grab their fifth win in a row.
