Seattle Mariners vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 6/11/2025

The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Seattle Mariners on June 11, 2025, in what promises to be a thrilling Interleague matchup. The D-Backs, currently sitting at 33-34, are looking to improve their standing after splitting the first two games of this three-game series. Seattle, at 33-33, is also seeking to gain momentum as they aim for a winning record.

On the mound, Arizona is set to start Eduardo Rodriguez, who has had a rough season with a 1-3 record and a 6.70 ERA. Despite these struggles, his 3.91 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky and could turn things around. In contrast, Bryan Woo will take the hill for Seattle, boasting a solid 5-3 record and an impressive 3.07 ERA. Woo's ability to limit walks (3.7 BB%) could be crucial against a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks among the top in walks drawn.

Offensively, Arizona's bats are ranked 3rd in MLB, with 95 home runs this season, while Seattle sits at 8th with 86 home runs. This power matchup could tilt the game in favor of whichever team capitalizes on fly balls, especially given Rodriguez's tendency to allow them. The D-Backs' offense may find opportunities against Woo, who has had mixed results against high-powered lineups.

With a game total set at 9.0 runs, this matchup is expected to be closely contested. Arizona's moneyline is currently -105, reflecting the tight competition, while Seattle is slightly favored at -115. Given the projections, the Diamondbacks have a solid chance to outperform their implied total of 4.45 runs, particularly if their hitters can exploit Rodriguez's flyball tendencies.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryan Woo is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #29 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Dylan Moore's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 88.4-mph figure last season has dropped off to 85.2-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Seattle Mariners batters collectively rank 7th- in the league for power this year when judging by their 9.9% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Eduardo Rodriguez's cut-fastball usage has fallen by 5.5% from last season to this one (19.2% to 13.7%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Extreme flyball hitters like Eugenio Suarez generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Bryan Woo.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ketel Marte pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.1% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 32 games (+11.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.05 Units / 25% ROI)
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+14.65 Units / 37% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.85, Arizona Diamondbacks 5.01

• Date: June 11, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.