Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays Pick & Prediction – 4/10/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Overview

• Date: April 10, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Blue Jays
• Run Line: Mariners 1.5 -220, Blue Jays -1.5 185
• Money Line: Mariners -110, Blue Jays -110
• Total (Over/Under):8 -115

Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Seattle Mariners - 50%
• Toronto Blue Jays - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Seattle Mariners - 47.6%
• Toronto Blue Jays - 52.4%

Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Game Preview & Prediction

On April 10, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the Seattle Mariners at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays, with a current record of 6-6, are having an average season so far. In contrast, the Mariners are struggling with a record of 4-8, making it a terrible season for them.

The Blue Jays, as the home team, will look to capitalize on their offensive strength. They rank as the 20th best offense in MLB this season, showing room for improvement. However, their team batting average ranks an impressive 5th in the league, indicating their ability to make solid contact at the plate.

The Mariners, on the other hand, have been struggling offensively, ranking as the 27th best offense in MLB. Their team batting average sits at 24th in the league, highlighting their difficulties in consistently producing hits.

In terms of pitching, the Blue Jays are projected to start left-handed pitcher Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi has had a strong start to the season, with an ERA of 2.79, which is excellent. However, his 3.34 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future outings. The Mariners, on the other hand, will start right-handed pitcher Logan Gilbert. Gilbert has shown promise with a good ERA of 3.55, but his 4.37 FIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and could face challenges moving forward.

Defensively, the Blue Jays bullpen ranks as the 19th best in MLB, while the Mariners bullpen struggles at 28th. This could give the Blue Jays an advantage late in the game if they can maintain a close contest.

In terms of recent performance, the Blue Jays' best hitter over the last 7 games has been Ernie Clement, who has recorded 1 home run and a batting average of .300. The Mariners' best hitter over the same period has been Dominic Canzone, who has recorded 5 hits, including 2 home runs, and boasts a batting average of .385.

Considering the team's offensive and pitching strengths, the Blue Jays appear to have the upper hand in this matchup. However, the Mariners' high-strikeout offense could be a challenge for Kikuchi, who excels in generating strikeouts.

The game total for this matchup is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. According to the current odds, both teams have an implied win probability of 50%, suggesting a close contest.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Among all the teams today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Mitch Haniger hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Yusei Kikuchi will record an average of 5.8 strikeouts today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Justin Turner is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Seattle (#2-worst of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Toronto Blue Jays (20.1 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone group of batters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners 4.61 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.56

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