Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers Pick For 9/22/2024

• Date: September 22, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners prepare to face off on September 22, 2024, at Globe Life Field, both teams find themselves in different standings within the American League West. The Rangers, with a record of 73-82, are enduring a below-average season, while the Mariners, at 80-75, are having an above-average campaign. The Mariners are still in the playoff hunt, making this matchup crucial for their postseason aspirations.

The Rangers will start left-hander Andrew Heaney, who has struggled this season with a 5-14 record but maintains a respectable 3.89 ERA. In contrast, the Mariners will counter with Bryan Woo, an emerging right-handed pitcher who boasts an impressive 2.85 ERA and an 8-3 record. However, Woo's xFIP of 3.82 suggests he might regress, indicating some luck in his performances this year.

Offensively, both teams have had their challenges. The Rangers rank 25th in offense and 22nd in team batting average, while the Mariners sit 22nd in offense and 29th in batting average. The Mariners, however, hold a slight edge in power, ranking 14th in home runs compared to the Rangers' 21st. The Rangers’ bullpen, ranked 13th, could prove pivotal against a Mariners bullpen that ranks 22nd, despite Seattle's superior overall record.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Mariners a 54% chance of winning this game, slightly higher than the betting markets' implied probability of 53%. With Woo on the mound and the Mariners aiming to bolster their playoff chances, they will look to exploit the Rangers' offensive struggles and secure a vital win in this late-season clash.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Compared to league average, Bryan Woo has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -8.3 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jorge Polanco has been unlucky this year. His .276 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .319.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

It may be sensible to expect stronger performance for the Seattle Mariners offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 8th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Andrew Heaney has used his secondary offerings 6% more often this year (48.3%) than he did last year (42.3%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Nathaniel Lowe has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 5.3% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past week's worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Texas Rangers hitters as a unit rank in the cellar of the league this year ( 9th-worst) as it relates to their 88.4-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 44 games (+15.75 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 66 away games (+13.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Nate Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+11.95 Units / 51% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.42 vs Texas Rangers 4.03

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.