Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers Best Bet – 9/21/2024

• Date: September 21, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Emerson Hancock - Mariners
  • Max Scherzer - Rangers

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners square off at Globe Life Field on September 21, 2024, both teams find themselves in distinctly different positions within the American League West standings. The Rangers, sitting at 73-81, are enduring a below-average season and are out of playoff contention. In contrast, the Mariners, with a 79-75 record, are having an average season and remain in the hunt for a potential Wild Card berth, making this matchup crucial for their postseason aspirations.

The Rangers are coming off a loss in the first game of this series and will look to bounce back with Max Scherzer on the mound today. Scherzer, despite a 2-4 record this season, boasts a respectable 3.95 ERA and ranks as the 54th-best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His ability to control walks (5.7 BB%) will be tested against a Mariners lineup that ranks 4th in drawing walks. Scherzer's projected performance includes 6.3 strikeouts and 2.3 earned runs over 5.3 innings, giving the Rangers a reliable presence on the mound.

The Mariners counter with Emerson Hancock, whose 4.83 ERA and 3-4 record indicate a challenging season. Hancock's peripheral stats suggest he's been fortunate, with a 5.98 xERA hinting at potential regression. His projected 4.9 innings with 2.7 earned runs allowed could spell trouble against a Rangers lineup that, while ranking 25th overall in offensive talent, might find opportunities against Hancock.

The Rangers' bullpen, ranked 4th in the league, could play a pivotal role in securing a win, especially considering the Mariners' bullpen ranks 21st. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Rangers with a 56% win probability, aligning with the betting markets that have Texas as a -140 favorite. With the Mariners' offense ranking 22nd overall but showing strength in home runs (14th) and stolen bases (9th), the matchup promises intrigue as both teams vie for different stakes in this late-season clash.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Emerson Hancock's high usage rate of his fastball (62.7% this year) is likely harming his results, consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Jorge Polanco has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Max Scherzer's fastball velocity has dropped 1.2 mph this season (91.9 mph) below where it was last season (93.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Josh Jung's average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 86.2-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 78.4-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Josh Jung hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 6th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 46 games (+15.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 55 away games (+14.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• Josh H. Smith has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 31 games (+10.25 Units / 32% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.16 vs Texas Rangers 4.72

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