Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers Best Bet – 9/20/2024

• Date: September 20, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • George Kirby - Mariners
  • Jacob deGrom - Rangers

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers get set to host the Seattle Mariners at Globe Life Field on September 20, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions within the American League West. The Rangers, with a record of 73-80, are enduring a below-average season, while the Mariners, sitting at 78-75, are having an average campaign. This series opener features a compelling pitching matchup that could be pivotal for Seattle as they look to keep their postseason hopes alive.

The Rangers will send Jacob deGrom to the mound, who, despite his limited action this year, boasts an impeccable 0.00 ERA. However, his 3.87 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate in his lone start. DeGrom's projected 4.9 innings today is less than ideal, but his ability to limit runs and strike out batters (projected 6.8 strikeouts) remains a strong asset. On the other side, George Kirby takes the hill for the Mariners. With 31 starts under his belt, Kirby has a solid 3.62 ERA and is projected to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs on average.

Offensively, both teams have struggled, with the Rangers ranking 25th in overall offense and the Mariners not far ahead at 22nd. Seattle's lineup, however, shows more power potential, ranking 14th in home runs compared to Texas's 21st. The Mariners also bring a speed element, ranking 9th in stolen bases. The Rangers' bullpen, ranked 6th in the Power Rankings, could play a crucial role in preserving a lead, especially against a Mariners' bullpen ranked 20th.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rangers a slight edge with a 51% win probability, aligning with betting markets that see this as a close contest. With both teams projected to score under four runs, this low-scoring affair could hinge on which starting pitcher can best navigate the opposing lineup.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

George Kirby's 95.3-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 86th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Despite posting a .311 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Julio Rodriguez has suffered from bad luck given the .048 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .359.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Seattle Mariners hitters collectively grade out 4th- in the game for power this year when using their 9.1% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jacob deGrom to be on a bit of a short leash in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 75 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

In the last two weeks, Jonah Heim's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 6th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 72 games at home (+15.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 60 away games (+16.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• Wyatt Langford has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+12.10 Units / 61% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 3.82 vs Texas Rangers 3.79

Get daily MLB picks here.