Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays Prediction For 6/26/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: June 26, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • George Kirby - Mariners
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners face off against the Tampa Bay Rays on June 26, 2024, both teams are looking to make a statement in this American League matchup. The Mariners have an above-average season record of 45-37, while the Rays are sitting at 40-40, reflecting a more middling performance. This game, the third in the series, will be played at Tropicana Field, with Ryan Pepiot taking the mound for the Rays and George Kirby for the Mariners.

Ryan Pepiot, the Rays' right-hander, has had a somewhat unlucky season despite his 4-4 record and a 4.57 ERA. His 3.60 xFIP suggests he's pitched better than his ERA indicates, positioning him as a potentially undervalued asset. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Pepiot projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs, striking out six, and giving up 4.0 hits and 1.7 walks on average today. The key matchup to watch here is Pepiot's high strikeout rate (27.8 K%) against a Mariners offense that leads the league in strikeouts.

On the flip side, George Kirby has been a solid performer for Seattle, boasting a 6-5 record with a 3.54 ERA. His 2.97 FIP suggests that he, too, has been a victim of some bad luck. Kirby projects to pitch 5.9 innings, give up 2.1 earned runs, strike out 5.7 batters, and allow 5.0 hits and 0.8 walks on average today. Kirby’s high-flyball tendencies could play well against the Rays, who rank 28th in MLB in home runs this season.

Offensively, the Mariners have struggled, ranking 25th overall and 29th in batting average, though their power numbers are respectable at 9th in home runs. The Rays have been slightly better, ranking 21st overall but 6th in stolen bases, which could add an interesting dynamic to the game given Kirby's low walk rate.

In terms of bullpens, the Rays hold an edge, ranking 15th in advanced-stat Power Rankings compared to the Mariners' 25th. This could be crucial in a close game, as betting markets suggest, with the Mariners having a slight edge at -115 odds compared to the Rays' -105.

Expect a tight contest with both starting pitchers looking to outperform their season stats, and keep an eye on how each lineup navigates the opposing pitcher’s strengths and weaknesses.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

With 6 batters of the same handedness in the opposing team's projected lineup, George Kirby ought to benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jorge Polanco is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-best out of all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Josh Lowe has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (45.6% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 76 games (+20.25 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 away games (+4.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+10.20 Units / 21% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.05 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.72

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