Seattle Mariners at St. Louis Cardinals Pick & Prediction – 9/8/2024

• Date: September 8, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On September 8, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Seattle Mariners at Busch Stadium for the third game of their interleague series. Both teams are currently hovering around .500, with the Cardinals at 72-70 and the Mariners slightly behind at 72-71. This matchup is crucial for both squads as they look to gain momentum in the season's final stretch.

In their last outing, the Cardinals faced off against the Mariners and managed a solid victory, showcasing some exemplary pitching in a 2-0 win. However, they have seen inconsistent lately, with their offense ranking 18th in the league, and they struggle particularly with power, sitting 22nd in home runs. On the other side, the Mariners have been even less productive, holding the 25th spot in overall offensive rankings and dead last in batting average.

Miles Mikolas, projected to start for the Cardinals, has had an average season, with a 5.27 ERA and a below-average strikeout rate of 16.7%. Nevertheless, he faces a Mariners lineup that leads MLB in strikeouts, which could work in his favor. Mikolas has seen some bad luck this year, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.11, suggesting he could perform better moving forward.

Luis Castillo, the Mariners' starter, has been a bright spot for his team with a solid 3.60 ERA and a respectable strikeout rate. He projects to pitch slightly longer than Mikolas, averaging 5.8 innings, and limiting earned runs effectively.

With the Cardinals' bullpen ranking 7th in MLB and the Mariners’ bullpen sitting at 25th, St. Louis may have the edge in late-game situations. The Game Total is set low at 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a tightly contested battle. As betting markets suggest a close game, the Cardinals, despite their recent inconsistency, may have the upper hand.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Luis Castillo's high usage percentage of his fastball (63.3% this year) is likely hurting his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Justin Turner is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Ranking in the 2nd percentile, Miles Mikolas posted a 6.8% Swinging Strike rate this year.

• Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.

Paul Goldschmidt has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.5-mph to 101.3-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.8% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 71% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 41 away games (+12.70 Units / 28% ROI)
• Masyn Winn has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.80 Units / 20% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.24 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.72

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.