Seattle Mariners at St. Louis Cardinals Pick & Prediction – 9/7/2024

• Date: September 7, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the Seattle Mariners on September 7, 2024, at Busch Stadium, both teams find themselves hovering around the .500 mark. The Cardinals sit at 71-70, while the Mariners are slightly ahead at 72-70. This Interleague matchup is crucial for both sides as they aim to gain momentum in the final stretch of the season. Notably, both teams are experiencing average offensive performances, with the Cardinals ranking 18th in the league and the Mariners at 25th.

In their last outing, the Cardinals were shut down by the pitching staff of the Mariners, which they will look to remedy today. With Kyle Gibson taking the mound for St. Louis, they are relying on his experience as he boasts an 8-6 record and a 4.39 ERA. However, the projections suggest he may be due for a regression, as his expected ERA (xERA) sits at 4.92, indicating he could be in for a challenging night against a Mariners lineup that, while underwhelming overall, can still capitalize on mistakes.

On the other side, Logan Gilbert brings a strong presence for Seattle, holding a 3.19 ERA and ranking 18th among pitchers in the league. Gilbert's ability to limit earned runs, projected at just 2.1 today, could be pivotal in keeping the Cardinals' offense at bay, especially considering their struggles with power, ranking 22nd in home runs.

With the Cardinals’ bullpen rated 8th in the league and the Mariners’ at 22nd, St. Louis stands to gain an advantage late in the game. The Game Total is set at a low 7.0 runs, reflecting the tight matchup and underscoring the importance of pitching. The betting markets indicate a close contest, making it vital for both teams to seize scoring opportunities as they vie for a much-needed victory.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2123 rpm) has been significantly higher than than his seasonal rate (2007 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Despite posting a .305 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Julio Rodriguez has been unlucky given the .055 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .360.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Kyle Gibson has tallied 17 outs per outing this year, ranking in the 76th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Brendan Donovan has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 5% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.9% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 37 games (+4.60 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 63 away games (+13.10 Units / 19% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 23 away games (+12.30 Units / 53% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.33 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.56

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