Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates Pick For 8/18/2024

• Date: August 18, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • George Kirby - Mariners
  • Jake Woodford - Pirates

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on August 18, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of disappointing seasons. The Pirates, currently sitting at 58-64, are struggling with an offense ranked 27th in MLB, while the Mariners, with a record of 63-61, are also underperforming, boasting the 28th best offense overall. Despite their average performance, the Mariners are favored in this Interleague matchup, marking the third game of the series.

In their last outing, the Pirates got a second straight win over the Mariners, a result they will aim to repeat in this contest. The game features two right-handed starters: Jake Woodford for the Pirates and George Kirby for the Mariners. Woodford has had a challenging year, with an 0-4 record and an ERA of 5.87, placing him as the 263rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. He is projected to pitch only 4.8 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs, which is concerning for Pittsburgh.

Conversely, George Kirby has been a standout for Seattle, ranked 16th among MLB pitchers with a solid 3.42 ERA this season. Kirby's ability to pitch an expected 5.7 innings while allowing just 2.3 earned runs could play a significant role in the outcome. The projections indicate that the Pirates may struggle to score, with an implied team total of only 3.65 runs.

Compounding their woes, the Pirates’ best hitter over the past week, Joey Bart, has shown some promise, recording a .368 batting average with a 1.032 OPS. However, given the stark contrast in pitching capabilities and the teams’ recent performances, the Mariners appear to have the upper hand in this matchup.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

George Kirby's 95.2-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 86th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Dylan Moore has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph dropping to 81.2-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Dylan Moore pulls many of his flyballs (38.3% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Compared to average, Jake Woodford has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -6.9 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Oneil Cruz has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 24.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably lower than his 34.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 52 of their last 93 games (+11.30 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 47 of their last 82 games (+7.65 Units / 8% ROI)
• Joey Bart has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.90 Units / 38% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.63 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.24

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