Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bet – 8/16/2024

• Date: August 16, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

On August 16, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates welcome the Seattle Mariners to PNC Park for the first game of their interleague series. Both teams come into this matchup with less than stellar records, with the Pirates sitting at 56-64, marking a below-average season, while the Mariners, with a record of 63-59, are slightly above average. Recent performances have shown the Pirates struggling offensively, ranking 28th in MLB, while the Mariners, despite their overall record, are ranked dead last in team batting average.

Paul Skenes, projected to start for the Pirates, has been phenomenal this season, earning a Power Rankings placement as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB. His 2.25 ERA is complemented by a solid 6-2 win/loss record. However, his SIERA of 2.77 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate in some of his outings. Skenes is up against Logan Gilbert, who has had a good season as well, with a 2.91 ERA and a 7-8 record, ranking 26th among starters. Gilbert has faced his own inconsistencies, as indicated by his higher SIERA of 3.42.

This game presents an intriguing matchup as Skenes, a high-strikeout pitcher, faces a Mariners offense that leads the league in strikeouts. This dynamic could give the Pirates' ace an edge. Additionally, with the projected game total set at a low 7.0 runs, it indicates a tightly contested affair, with betting markets suggesting a close game reflected in the Pirates' moneyline set at -130 and Mariners at +110.

Both teams have been contending with their fair share of offensive woes, but with Skenes on the mound, the Pirates may have a better chance to capitalize on their pitching advantage.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Logan Gilbert has used his secondary pitches 9.6% more often this season (67.5%) than he did last year (57.9%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Dylan Moore's average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 88.8-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 73.9-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners's expected catcher in today's matchup) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Out of all starters, Paul Skenes's fastball velocity of 98.2 mph is in the 100th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (35.0) may lead us to conclude that Oneil Cruz has had some very poor luck this year with his 24.6 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The 8.6% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates makes them the #9 club in the game this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 45 of their last 78 games (+10.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 31 away games (+6.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 46 games (+13.35 Units / 25% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 3.97 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.2

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