Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics Prediction For 6/4/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 4, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • George Kirby - Mariners
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

On June 4, 2024, the Oakland Athletics will host the Seattle Mariners at Oakland Coliseum for an American League West matchup. The Athletics, with a season record of 24-37, are having a tough season, while the Mariners boast a strong 34-27 record. The game is the first in a series between these two teams.

The Athletics are projected to start right-handed pitcher Mitch Spence, who has a record of 4-2 this season. Spence has started three games and made 14 appearances out of the bullpen. With an ERA of 3.52, he has performed well on the mound. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, he is ranked as the #182 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is one of the worst in the league.

On the other hand, the Mariners will send right-handed pitcher George Kirby to the mound. Kirby has started 12 games this season, with a record of 4-5. While his ERA stands at 4.08, his 3.40 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Kirby is ranked as the #24 best starting pitcher in MLB, highlighting his talent.

In terms of offense, the Athletics rank as the #23 best in MLB this season, while the Mariners rank as the #26 best. However, the Athletics have struggled with their batting average, ranking last in the league. The Mariners, on the other hand, have an average ranking in team home runs and stolen bases.

The Athletics' bullpen is considered the #8 best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Mariners' bullpen ranks #22. This suggests that the Athletics have a stronger relief pitching unit.

Based on the current odds, the Mariners are the betting favorite with an implied win probability of 59%, while the Athletics are considered underdogs with a 41% win probability. The game total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair.

Overall, the Mariners have been performing better this season, both offensively and with their starting pitcher's ranking. However, the Athletics have a stronger bullpen, which could play a crucial role in the outcome of the game. With the Mariners being the favorites, the Athletics will need a strong performance from Mitch Spence and their offense to defy the odds and secure a victory.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. George Kirby has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 60.7% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Cal Raleigh is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Oakland (#1-worst of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.6% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 10th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

The Oakland Athletics outfield defense projects as the worst out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Zack Gelof has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Oakland Athletics have 6 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Schuemann, Tyler Soderstrom, Zack Gelof, Seth Brown, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.25 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.40 Units / 33% ROI)
• JJ Bleday has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 14 games at home (+20.20 Units / 144% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.47 vs Oakland Athletics 3.69

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