Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics Pick For 6/5/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: June 5, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
  • Joey Estes - Athletics

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

The Athletics, currently with a record of 24-37, are having a terrible season. They will be looking to turn things around as they face the Mariners, who have been performing well with a record of 34-27.

Joey Estes is projected to start for the Athletics. He is a right-handed pitcher who has started four games this year. Estes has a win/loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 6.10, which is considered horrible. However, his 4.39 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other hand, the Mariners will send Logan Gilbert to the mound. Gilbert, also a right-handed pitcher, has started 12 games this year. He has a win/loss record of 3-3 and an impressive ERA of 3.29.

In terms of offensive performance, the Athletics rank as the 24th best team in MLB, while the Mariners rank 26th. However, the Athletics have shown strength in stolen bases, ranking 5th in the league in that category.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Athletics have the best bullpen in the league, while the Mariners rank 22nd. This could be a factor to consider in the late innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Mariners are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 59%. The Athletics, as underdogs, have an implied win probability of 41%. The game total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair.

Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, but the Mariners seem to have the edge in this matchup. With Logan Gilbert on the mound and a slightly better offensive ranking, they are favored to come out on top. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and anything can happen on any given day.

As the Athletics look to improve their season, they will need a strong performance from Joey Estes and support from their offense. The Mariners, on the other hand, will rely on Logan Gilbert to continue his solid pitching and their offense to provide run support.

Baseball fans and sports bettors alike will be eagerly awaiting this game to see how the Athletics and Mariners match up. It's sure to be an exciting contest between these American League West rivals.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert has tallied 19.2 outs per start this year, placing in the 98th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Mitch Garver's footspeed has improved this year. His 25.58 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.11 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

The Seattle Mariners bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Considering the 1.72 disparity between Joey Estes's 6.46 ERA and his 4.74 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball since the start of last season and figures to see positive regression going forward.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brent Rooker's true offensive talent to be a .331, providing some evidence that he has had some very good luck this year given the .058 disparity between that figure and his actual .389 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Today, J.D. Davis is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.8% rate (95th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.30 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 27 games (+4.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 16 games (+13.10 Units / 82% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.39 vs Oakland Athletics 3.94

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.