Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 23, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
  • Luis Gil - Yankees

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

In an American League matchup, the Seattle Mariners will visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees on May 23, 2024. The Yankees, with a record of 34-17, are having a great season and currently hold the second-best record in MLB. The Mariners, with a record of 27-23, are performing above average.

On the mound for the Yankees will be right-handed pitcher Luis Gil. Gil has been impressive this year, with a Win/Loss record of 5-1 and an ERA of 2.39, which is excellent. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this season and may not perform as well in the future. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gil is ranked as the #43 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers.

Opposing Gil will be right-handed pitcher Luis Castillo for the Mariners. Castillo has started 10 games this year, with a Win/Loss record of 4-5 and an ERA of 3.28, which is great. Our Power Rankings consider Castillo the #24 best starting pitcher in MLB.

The Yankees offense ranks as the second-best in MLB this season, with a strong lineup. However, their team batting average ranks #29 out of 30 teams, indicating that their underlying talent may be better than their year-to-date performance suggests. They excel in team home runs, ranking 8th in MLB. On the other hand, the Mariners offense ranks as the 19th best in MLB, with an average overall performance.

Based on the current odds, the Yankees are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -145, implying a 57% win probability. The Mariners are the underdogs with a moneyline of +125, suggesting a 43% win probability.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Compared to league average, Luis Castillo has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 6.1 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (39.4) implies that Dylan Moore has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his 25.8 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Seattle Mariners have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Cal Raleigh, Luke Raley, Mitch Garver, Dylan Moore).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Luis Gil's high utilization rate of his fastball (56.1% this year) is likely weakening his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Alex Verdugo has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.95 Units / 63% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+9.00 Units / 50% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 3.92 vs New York Yankees 4.49

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