Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick & Prediction – 8/21/2024

• Date: August 21, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
  • Jack Flaherty - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 21, 2024, the stakes are high in this interleague matchup at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, boasting a solid 75-52 record, have been a powerhouse this season, while the Mariners sit at a more modest 64-63, struggling to find consistent success. In their last game, which took place yesterday, the Dodgers secured a 6-3 victory over the Mariners, further solidifying their dominance in this series.

Projected starters Jack Flaherty and Logan Gilbert present an intriguing pitching duel. Flaherty, currently ranked as the 39th best starting pitcher in MLB, has shown flashes of brilliance with a 3.06 ERA this season. He is known for his strikeout ability, boasting a 32.2 K% this year, which could pose problems for the Mariners, who rank 1st in MLB for strikeouts. However, Flaherty’s projections indicate he may allow a concerning 4.7 hits on average, raising questions about his efficiency.

On the other hand, Logan Gilbert, ranked 24th in MLB, has been impressive with a 2.96 ERA. He has a low walk rate of 4.7 BB%, which could neutralize the Dodgers' patience at the plate, as they rank 2nd in MLB for walks. Gilbert's ability to limit free passes will be crucial against a powerful Dodgers lineup, currently ranked 5th in MLB offensively and 3rd in home runs.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the projections favor the Dodgers significantly, with a projected win probability of 62%. With a high implied team total of 4.44 runs, the Dodgers are expected to capitalize on their offensive strength, while the Mariners face an uphill battle to keep pace.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2114 rpm) has been a considerable increase over than his seasonal rate (1992 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Julio Rodriguez has been unlucky this year, notching a .304 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .358 — a .054 discrepancy.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Seattle Mariners hitters as a group grade out 4th- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 9.3% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Jack Flaherty has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 6.3 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Max Muncy has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (78% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

In today's game, Max Muncy is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.5% rate (97th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+6.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 44 away games (+9.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 40 games (+8.55 Units / 21% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.28 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.19

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