Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels Prediction For 7/13/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: July 13, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • George Kirby - Mariners
  • Jose Soriano - Angels

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners prepare for their July 13, 2024 matchup at Angel Stadium, the teams find themselves in starkly different positions within the American League West. The Angels, currently struggling with a 38-55 record, face an uphill battle against a Mariners squad boasting a 52-43 record and riding high on an above-average season. This third game of the series promises intrigue, with both starting pitchers aiming to make a significant impact.

The Angels, who have not been able to find their footing this season, will send Jose Soriano to the mound. Despite the team's overall struggles, Soriano has been a bright spot, ranking as the ###47 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His 3.87 ERA and 4-7 win/loss record reflect a solid performance amidst turbulent times for his team. Soriano, however, projects to allow 2.3 earned runs and strike out 5.5 batters on average today according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.

Opposing him is George Kirby, an elite pitcher ranked ###15 by the same advanced-stat Power Rankings. With a stellar 3.39 ERA and a 7-6 win/loss record, Kirby has been a reliable force on the mound for Seattle. Notably, Kirby's 2.88 FIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky this season and might perform even better going forward. The Mariners' ace projects to allow 2.4 earned runs today, further solidifying his reputation as a dependable starter.

Offensively, the teams present contrasting profiles. The Angels rank 23rd in MLB, with a particularly dismal 21st in team batting average. However, they show some power potential, ranking 14th in home runs. Over the last week, Logan O'Hoppe has been their standout hitter, boasting a .318 average and two home runs in six games.

The Mariners, on the other hand, struggle even more at the plate, ranking 27th overall and 29th in batting average. Yet, they exhibit decent power, ranking 11th in home runs, with Julio Rodriguez leading the charge recently with a scorching .636 average over his last five games.

Both teams' bullpens have been among the worst in the league, with the Angels and Mariners ranked 29th and 27th, respectively, in advanced-stat Power Rankings. This weakness could play a crucial role in determining the game's outcome, especially if the starters don't go deep into the game.

Betting odds favor the Mariners with a moneyline of -160, suggesting an implied win probability of 59%. Meanwhile, the Angels are underdogs at +135, giving them a 41% implied chance to win. Given the Mariners' superior pitching and slightly better offense, they seem poised to edge out a victory in this critical division matchup.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

George Kirby's 95.1-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 84th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Bats such as Jorge Polanco with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jose Soriano who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen projects as the 4th-worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jose Soriano is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.8% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #9 HR venue among all stadiums — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Taylor Ward has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 14.6% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Logan O'Hoppe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 10th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+9.30 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 away games (+6.60 Units / 33% ROI)
• Mitch Garver has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.75 Units / 30% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.57 vs Los Angeles Angels 4

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