Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels Pick For 9/1/2024

• Date: September 1, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners
  • Caden Dana - Angels

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Angels and the Seattle Mariners face off on September 1, 2024, the matchup holds significance despite both teams being outside the playoff picture. The Angels, with a record of 55-80, are having a rough season, while the Mariners sit at 69-66, clinging to a slightly better campaign. In their previous matchup, the Angels took the win, as they look for another win on Sunday.

On the mound, the Angels will send Caden Dana, who ranks as the 216th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Dana has been anything but reliable, projecting to allow 2.8 earned runs while yielding 4.8 hits and 1.7 walks on average today. In stark contrast, the Mariners will counter with Bryce Miller, who is ranked 63rd among MLB starters. Miller's impressive ERA of 3.23 shows he is on a strong trajectory, even though his xFIP suggests he could face regressions in performance moving forward.

Despite the Angels’ offensive struggles, they rank 26th in overall efficiency and only 22nd in batting average, their one bright spot is their ability to steal bases, where they rank 7th. Meanwhile, the Mariners’ offense has also performed poorly, ranking 28th in total efficiency and dead last in batting average, but they have managed to hit for power, placing 14th in home runs.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, there’s potential for some fireworks in this matchup. The Angels are underdogs with a current moneyline of +140, implying an average team total of 4.02 runs. In contrast, the Mariners are favored at -160, with projections giving them an enticing team total of 4.98 runs. Expect a game that could tilt toward Seattle if Miller can keep his solid form.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Tallying 17.4 outs per game per started this year on average, Bryce Miller checks in at the 83rd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Justin Turner has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (89% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Victor Robles pulls many of his flyballs (37% — 94th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 10th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Mickey Moniak has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Los Angeles Angels have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mickey Moniak, Niko Kavadas, Logan O'Hoppe, Jo Adell).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 48 games at home (+7.20 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 28 away games (+9.25 Units / 30% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 19 away games (+10.45 Units / 45% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.26 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.38

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