Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros Pick & Prediction – 9/24/2024

• Date: September 24, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
  • Framber Valdez - Astros

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners bring their American League West rivalry to Minute Maid Park on September 24, 2024, for what promises to be an engaging matchup. Both teams are still in the hunt for postseason play, with the Astros boasting an 85-72 record and the Mariners not far behind at 81-76. The Mariners took the first game of the series, adding pressure to the Astros to even things up.

On the mound, Houston will send out Framber Valdez, an elite left-handed pitcher currently ranked 13th best in baseball. Valdez has put together an impressive season with a 14-7 record and a stellar 2.85 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest he's been a bit fortunate, meaning he could be due for regression. He'll be aiming to navigate through a Mariners offense that struggles, ranking 22nd overall and 29th in batting average.

Seattle counters with Logan Gilbert, a right-hander ranked 16th among major league starters. Gilbert's 3.24 ERA and high strikeout rate could be key factors, but he faces a tough test against a solid Astros lineup. Houston ranks as the 8th best offense and 3rd in team batting average. The Astros' ability to make contact may neutralize some of Gilbert's strengths, especially since they strike out less than almost any other team.

Despite the Astros being betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests this game is a tight contest, giving the Mariners a 48% win probability. Considering the Mariners' odds, there could be value in backing them, especially with the chance to capitalize on their recent offensive hot streak led by Julio Rodriguez.

Given the importance of this game in the standings and the close projections, fans can expect a tightly contested battle as both teams vie for a precious win in their push towards October.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2188 rpm) has been considerably better than than his seasonal rate (2026 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Extreme groundball bats like Justin Turner usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez is an extreme groundball pitcher (58.7% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Minute Maid Park — the #8 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Jeremy Pena has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (61% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

In today's matchup, Jon Singleton is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.1% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 57 of their last 101 games (+15.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 64 away games (+18.05 Units / 25% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games (+9.45 Units / 68% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.1 vs Houston Astros 4.23

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