Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers Pick For 8/14/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: August 14, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • Beau Brieske - Tigers

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to face the Seattle Mariners on August 14, 2024, this matchup carries implications for both teams, particularly following the Tigers' surprising 15-1 blowout victory over the Mariners just a day prior. With the Tigers sitting at 57-63, they are having a below-average season, while the Mariners, at 63-57, are enjoying a solid year.

On the mound, the Tigers are projected to start Beau Brieske, who has struggled this season with a 4.57 ERA, ranking him as the 106th best starting pitcher in MLB. His recent performance shows promise, as he had an abbreviated outing with no earned runs in his last start, but he typically projects poorly, averaging just 1.2 innings pitched and allowing 0.5 earned runs today. In contrast, the Mariners will counter with Bryan Woo, who has been impressive with a 2.27 ERA and a ranking of 43rd among MLB starters. Woo's recent form includes a solid 7-inning performance where he allowed 3 earned runs, but projections suggest he may face challenges today, as he is expected to give up 2.2 earned runs on average.

Offensively, the Tigers rank 28th in MLB, and their best hitter, Matt Vierling, has been inconsistent. However, Zach McKinstry has recently stepped up, batting .353 in his last week. The Mariners, while struggling overall, boast Cal Raleigh, who has been on fire with a .316 batting average and 9 RBIs over the last week, showcasing their potential for offensive firepower.

Interestingly, the projections give the Tigers a slight edge in win probability, suggesting that despite their struggles, there may be value in betting on them as underdogs at +120. With the Game Total set at an average 8.0 runs, this matchup could yield surprises, especially given the Tigers' recent offensive explosion.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryan Woo has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 12.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Josh Rojas is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Dylan Moore pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.4% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Zach McKinstry has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Detroit Tigers projected offense projects as the 5th-weakest of the day in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games (+14.15 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 away games (+12.90 Units / 29% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 43 games (+10.45 Units / 14% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.7 vs Detroit Tigers 3.99

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.