Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies Prediction For 4/20/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies Overview

• Date: April 20, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
  • Dakota Hudson - Rockies
• Run Line: Mariners -1.5 (-120), Rockies +1.5 (+100)
• Money Line: Mariners -180, Rockies 155
• Total (Over/Under):10 -125

Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Seattle Mariners - 62%
• Colorado Rockies - 38%

Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies Game Preview & Prediction

The Colorado Rockies will face off against the Seattle Mariners in an Interleague matchup on April 20, 2024, at Coors Field. The Rockies, currently having a terrible season with a 4-15 record, will be the home team, while the Mariners, with a below-average season at 9-10, will be the away team.

On the mound, the Rockies are projected to start right-handed pitcher Dakota Hudson, who has struggled this season. Hudson has started three games with a win-loss record of 0-3 and an ERA of 4.15, which is above average. However, his peripheral indicator, SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA), suggests that he has been lucky so far and may perform worse going forward. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Hudson is ranked #224 out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him one of the worst in MLB.

Opposing Hudson will be the Mariners' right-handed pitcher, Luis Castillo. Castillo has also had a tough start to the season, with a win-loss record of 0-4 and an ERA of 5.82, which is considered horrible. However, his xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better in the future. According to our Power Rankings, Castillo is ranked #31, indicating that he is a good starting pitcher.

The Rockies' offense ranks as the 16th best in MLB this season, with an average ranking in team batting average and a bad ranking in team home runs and stolen bases. The Mariners' offense ranks slightly worse, coming in at 24th best in MLB, with bad rankings in team batting average and stolen bases, and an average ranking in team home runs.

In terms of the bullpen, the Rockies are ranked as the 10th best in MLB, while the Mariners are ranked as the 26th best. This gives the Rockies an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Looking at the betting odds, the Mariners are the favorite to win with an implied win probability of 62%, while the Rockies are the underdogs with a 38% win probability. The Rockies have a high implied team total of 4.33 runs, while the Mariners have a very high implied team total of 5.67 runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Compared to average, Luis Castillo has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an extra 5.9 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Colorado's #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Cal Raleigh, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Projected catcher Cal Raleigh profiles as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The Seattle Mariners have 6 hitters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Dakota Hudson in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Batting from the opposite that Luis Castillo throws from, Charlie Blackmon will have an edge today.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen grades out as the 10th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Mariners vs Rockies Prediction: Mariners 6.07 - Rockies 4.33

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.