Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox Best Bet – 7/28/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: July 28, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox host the third game of their series against the Seattle Mariners on July 28, 2024, both teams find themselves at opposite ends of the standings. While the Mariners, at 55-51, are having an above-average season, the White Sox's 27-80 record underscores their struggles this year. Garrett Crochet, one of the most elite pitchers in MLB based on advanced metrics, will take the mound for Chicago. He sports a stellar 3.07 ERA and a remarkable 2.36 xFIP, suggesting that he’s been somewhat unlucky this season and could perform even better going forward.

Crochet, a high-strikeout pitcher, faces a Mariners offense that has struck out more than any other team in MLB. This matchup could play right into Crochet's strengths, as his 35.4 K% is primed to exploit Seattle's weakness. Meanwhile, Bryce Miller, Seattle's starting pitcher, carries a solid 3.41 ERA but has been fortunate according to his 3.94 xFIP. Miller faces a White Sox offense that’s ranked 30th in MLB, struggling across the board in batting average and home runs.

On the offensive side, the White Sox have seen a spark from Paul DeJong, who has been their best hitter over the past week, hitting .278 with an OPS of .871. However, the Mariners' Jorge Polanco has been on fire, boasting a .292 batting average and an impressive 1.179 OPS, including four home runs, over the last week.

Both bullpens add another layer of intrigue. Chicago’s bullpen ranks 30th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, reflecting their year-long difficulties. In contrast, Seattle's bullpen is middle-of-the-pack, sitting at 17th.

The betting lines have this as a tight contest, with both teams sporting identical -110 moneylines, translating to a 50% implied win probability for each. With the game total set at 7.0 runs, bettors seem to anticipate a low-scoring affair. Given Crochet’s elite status and the Mariners’ high strikeout rate, the White Sox might just have a marginal edge, despite their overall dismal season.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller has recorded 17.4 outs per GS this year, grading out in the 81st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Mitch Haniger is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Mitch Garver pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

With 9 bats of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Garrett Crochet will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Paul DeJong's average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 87.8-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 81.3-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago White Sox have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Luis Robert, Korey Lee, Paul DeJong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+7.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 36 away games (+11.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• Korey Lee has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+6.85 Units / 61% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.28 vs Chicago White Sox 4.03

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