Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles Pick For 5/18/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 18, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
  • Undecided - Orioles

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Seattle Mariners at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on May 18, 2024. The Orioles, with a remarkable record of 28-14 this season, are having a great year and will be looking to continue their winning streak. Meanwhile, the Mariners, with a solid record of 24-21, have been performing above average and will be aiming to secure a victory on the road.

The Orioles have yet to decide on a starting pitcher, after their rotation was sent into some turmoil with Cole Irvin being unable to start on Friday.

On the other hand, the Mariners will be relying on their right-handed pitcher, Luis Castillo, who is considered one of the best starting pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Castillo has started nine games, with a Win/Loss record of 4-5 and an impressive ERA of 3.31. His presence on the mound gives the Mariners an advantage in this matchup.

The Orioles are coming off a dominant performance against the Mariners in their last game, securing a convincing 9-2 victory. The Orioles' offense has been impressive this season, ranking as the 7th best in MLB. They have showcased their power with a total of 17 home runs, while also displaying speed with 6 stolen bases. Gunnar Henderson has been their standout hitter, contributing significantly to their success.

The Mariners, however, have struggled to find consistency at the plate, ranking 24th in team batting average this season. Julio Rodriguez has been their most reliable hitter, but the team will need more offensive production to overcome the Orioles' strong pitching.

Both teams have solid bullpens, with the Orioles ranking 21st and the Mariners ranking 23rd in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. The outcome of this game may come down to the performance of the starting pitchers and the offensive output of each team.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Orioles have a projected win probability of 52% in this game, while the Mariners have a 48% chance of winning. The current moneyline odds for both teams are set at -110, indicating that this is expected to be a close and highly competitive game.

With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, the expectations for scoring may be relatively low. THE BAT X projects the Orioles to score an average of 4.14 runs, while the Mariners are projected to score 4.25 runs on average.

Ultimately, this game presents an intriguing matchup between the Orioles' strong pitching and powerful offense, and the Mariners' solid pitching and the need for improved offensive production. Baseball fans and sports bettors alike can anticipate an exciting and closely contested game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

With 6 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Luis Castillo faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Mitch Haniger's speed has fallen off this year. His 26.65 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.71 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners's expected catcher in today's game) grades out as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

When it comes to his home runs, Colton Cowser has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His 17.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 3.0.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 52% ROI)
• Jordan Westburg has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 18 games at home (+6.15 Units / 32% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.29 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.17

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