San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals Prediction & Odds – 8/6/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: August 6, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hayden Birdsong - Giants
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face the San Francisco Giants on August 6, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of challenging seasons. The Nationals currently sit at 51-62, while the Giants hold a record of 57-57, reflecting an average performance. This matchup marks the second game of the series, and the Nationals will look to bounce back after a tough outing in their last game.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start MacKenzie Gore, who has had an up-and-down season with a 6-9 record and an ERA of 4.54. However, advanced projections suggest that he might have been unlucky, with a better xFIP of 3.95. Gore's average strikeout rate of 6.9 batters per game could be pivotal against a Giants lineup that ranks 14th in MLB offensively but has shown inconsistency. The Giants will counter with Hayden Birdsong, who has been impressive this year with a 3-0 record and a stellar 2.97 ERA. Birdsong's high strikeout percentage (30.2 K%) presents a challenge for the Nationals, who rank 6th least in strikeouts.

Offensively, the Nationals struggle, sitting 24th in overall offensive rankings and 29th in home runs. However, Luis Garcia has been a bright spot, showcasing his talent with a .500 batting average and 11 hits in the last week. On the other hand, the Giants have had a more balanced offensive approach, with Matt Chapman leading the way, contributing to a team that ranks 14th in MLB.

Given the Giants' top-ranked bullpen and the Nationals' overall struggles, the odds favor San Francisco. However, with Gore's potential for a strong outing and Garcia's recent performance, Washington could pull off an upset if the pieces fall into place. The Game Total stands at a high 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for an offensive showdown.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Tyler Fitzgerald is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Patrick Bailey, the Giants's expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 6.7 more adjusted pitches-per-game than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jacob Young's average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 84.6-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 80.2-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 60 of their last 104 games (+10.30 Units / 8% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 29 games (+7.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• Michael Conforto has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+9.35 Units / 21% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.59 vs Washington Nationals 4.04

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