San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 5/25/2025

On May 25, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the San Francisco Giants at Nationals Park in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup. The Giants currently sit at 30-22, enjoying a strong season, while the Nationals are struggling at 24-28, marking them as below average this year. In their last game, the Nationals faced the Giants and won, a result they will look to build on today.

The pitching matchup features Nationals’ Mike Soroka against Giants’ Robbie Ray. Soroka, a right-handed pitcher, has had a rocky season with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 5.95. However, his 2.90 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky and could improve. Soroka is projected to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, which suggests he might still be a factor in keeping the game competitive.

Conversely, Robbie Ray has been exceptional this season, boasting a spotless 6-0 record and an impressive ERA of 2.67. The projections suggest he’ll pitch 5.9 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs, which should keep the Giants in a strong position to secure a win.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 16th in MLB, while the GIants are 18th in overall offensive ranking, and have struggled with a .226 batting average, which is among the worst in the league.

With the Giants favored at -160 and an implied team total of 4.40 runs, they are expected to capitalize on their pitching advantage. The Nationals, on the other hand, are underdogs at +135, with a low implied team total of 3.60 runs, indicating that they will need to find a way to overcome their offensive inconsistencies to compete effectively.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Considering that groundball hitters hold a big edge over flyball pitchers, Robbie Ray and his 39.3% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult spot in this outing squaring off against 6 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme groundball hitters like Wilmer Flores tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Mike Soroka.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The San Francisco Giants have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Heliot Ramos, Sam Huff, Matt Chapman, Tyler Fitzgerald).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mike Soroka will hold the platoon advantage against 6 opposing hitters in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Luis Garcia Jr. is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Washington Nationals hitters as a group rank 22nd- in the majors for power this year when using their 7.7% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+6.15 Units / 93% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+6.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jung Hoo Lee has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.30 Units / 38% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.21, Washington Nationals 4.13

• Date: May 25, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Robbie Ray - Giants
  • Mike Soroka - Nationals

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