San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 5/24/2025

On May 24, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the San Francisco Giants at Nationals Park in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup. The Nationals sit at 23-28 this season, struggling to find their footing, while the Giants have been impressive with a record of 30-21. This game marks the second in the series, and the Giants will be looking to maintain their momentum after a strong start to the season.

The Nationals are projected to send Jake Irvin to the mound. Despite being ranked as the 230th best starting pitcher in MLB, Irvin has managed a respectable 3-1 record with a 3.88 ERA this season. However, his 4.67 xFIP suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune, indicating potential struggles ahead. Irvin is expected to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing approximately 2.8 earned runs, but his projections for hits and walks are concerning.

On the other side, the Giants will counter with Kyle Harrison, who has yet to start a game this season. Harrison has made four appearances out of the bullpen, posting a solid 3.38 ERA, though his 4.58 FIP hints at a less favorable performance if he were to start. His projected innings pitched is low at 4.4, and he’s expected to allow 2.1 earned runs.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 16th in MLB, showcasing average talent, while the Giants sit at 18th. With the Nationals listed as underdogs at +115 and the Giants favored at -140, the projections suggest a closer game than the odds imply, particularly given the Giants' recent struggles at the plate. Today’s Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially competitive battle on the diamond.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Kyle Harrison has utilized his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 57.7% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Willy Adames is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen ranks as the best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin's 91.3-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 2.6-mph decline from last season's 93.9-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

The San Francisco Giants have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nathaniel Lowe stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 39 games (+5.02 Units / 11% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Patrick Bailey has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+7.00 Units / 175% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.76, Washington Nationals 3.83

• Date: May 24, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals

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