San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals Pick – 5/23/2025

On May 23, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the San Francisco Giants at Nationals Park in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are hovering around the .500 mark, with the Nationals sitting at 23-27, struggling to find their rhythm this season, and the Giants enjoying a more favorable 29-21 record, showcasing a solid performance thus far.

The Nationals’ MacKenzie Gore, who has been battling through a rough patch with a 2-4 record this year, is projected to take the mound. Despite his W/L record, Gore's 3.67 ERA indicates he’s been somewhat unlucky, as his 2.48 xFIP suggests he may have better days ahead. He averages 7.1 strikeouts with a projected 2.3 earned runs allowed today, making him a capable starter, although he needs to mitigate his 4.4 hits and 2.1 walks allowed on average.

On the other side, the Giants will counter with Landen Roupp, who holds a 2-3 record and a 4.11 ERA. Roupp also carries a 3.35 xERA, hinting that he could improve as the season progresses. His strikeout rate is below average at 4.3, and he too struggles with hits and walks, projecting 4.7 hits and 2.2 walks today.

While the Nationals have an average offense ranked 15th in MLB, they have been particularly effective on the base paths, ranking 7th in stolen bases. In contrast, the Giants' offense ranks 16th overall but has struggled significantly in batting average, sitting 22nd.

With both teams evenly matched, the Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a close contest. Betting markets have placed both teams at -110, suggesting they see this matchup as a toss-up. However, with the Nationals' ability to capitalize on base running and Gore’s potential to outperform, there may be an edge for the home squad in this tightly contested battle.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Out of all starters, Landen Roupp's fastball spin rate of 2008 rpm grades out in the 8th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Typically, batters like Wilmer Flores who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as MacKenzie Gore.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Considering that flyball pitchers have a significant edge over flyball hitters, MacKenzie Gore and his 33% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position in this game going up against 3 opposing FB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Alex Call has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.97 Units / 29% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+10.10 Units / 126% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.07, Washington Nationals 3.86

• Date: May 23, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Landen Roupp - Giants
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

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