San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick & Preview – 6/20/2024

San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: June 20, 2024
• Venue: Rickwood Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Keaton Winn - Giants
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the San Francisco Giants at Rickwood Field on June 20, 2024, both teams find themselves in need of a win. The Cardinals, with a 36-37 record, are having an average season, while the Giants' 36-39 record reflects a below-average performance. This National League matchup will be the first game in a new series between these two teams.

The Cardinals will send Andre Pallante to the mound. The right-hander has an ERA of 4.61, which THE BAT X—the leading MLB projection system—sees as a sign of potential improvement given his 3.99 FIP. Pallante’s Win/Loss record of 2-3 and an average strikeout projection of 3.5 batters aren't particularly inspiring, but his peripheral stats suggest he may have been unlucky this year. His opponent, Keaton Winn, has struggled more, posting a 6.66 ERA alongside a 3-7 record. Interestingly, Winn's 3.90 xFIP indicates he has also been the victim of some bad luck, which could balance the scales in today’s matchup.

The Giants will likely have to lean on their offense, which ranks as the 15th best in the league. Boasting a .300 batting average and 1.162 OPS over the last week, Jorge Soler has been a standout for San Francisco, adding 2 home runs and 8 RBIs in just 6 games. On the other hand, the Cardinals offense has been less impressive, ranking 20th overall. However, Ivan Herrera has been a bright spot, hitting .357 with a 1.009 OPS over his last 4 games.

Both bullpens rank in the top 10 according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, with the Giants at 2nd and the Cardinals at 6th. This strength in relief pitching could play a pivotal role in what is projected to be a close game, given the Cardinals' implied win probability of 52% versus the Giants' 48%.

Betting markets have set the game total at 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a high-scoring affair, exacerbated by the starting pitchers' shaky ERAs. With both teams averaging around 4.5 runs per game, today's matchup could hinge on which starter gets a grip early and if either bullpen falters.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Keaton Winn (48.3% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 3 FB hitters in St. Louis's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

St. Louis's #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Heliot Ramos, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants's expected catcher today) grades out as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Andre Pallante's high usage percentage of his fastball (68.1% since the start of last season) is likely dampening his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Brendan Donovan has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (70% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.90 Units / 49% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.65 Units / 36% ROI)
• Masyn Winn has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+9.95 Units / 28% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.49 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.22

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