San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction & Picks 9/7/2024

• Date: September 7, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Webb - Giants
  • Dylan Cease - Padres

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the San Francisco Giants on September 7, 2024, they find themselves in a strong position, sitting at 80-62, while the Giants are struggling at 69-72. This National League West matchup is crucial for the Padres, who are looking to solidify their standing in the playoff race. In their last outing, the Padres faced the Giants and emerged victorious, further cementing their good season.

The Padres are projected to send Dylan Cease to the mound, who has been solid this year with a 12-10 record and a 3.62 ERA. Although Cease's projections indicate he might struggle with hits and walks today, he boasts an impressive strikeout rate of 8.1 strikeouts per game, which could be critical against a Giants lineup that ranks 20th in MLB offensively. Meanwhile, Logan Webb, the Giants' starter, has been effective with a 3.43 ERA and a higher xERA of 4.27, suggesting he may have been somewhat fortunate this season.

Offensively, the Padres are ranked 1st in MLB in team batting average and 7th overall, showcasing their ability to generate runs. In contrast, the Giants' offense ranks 23rd in home runs and sits at the bottom of the league in stolen bases, indicating their struggles at the plate. The projections favor the Padres, who are expected to score an average of 3.79 runs, while the Giants are projected to manage only 3.21 runs.

With a low game total of 7.0 runs, the Padres enter this series as the betting favorites at -150, reflecting their strong performance and the Giants' challenges. Given Cease's capability to dominate on the mound and the Padres' offensive prowess, they look poised to secure another victory in this crucial matchup.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Logan Webb’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (92.9 mph) has been considerably faster than than his seasonal rate (91.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Despite posting a .380 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Tyler Fitzgerald has been very fortunate given the .082 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .298.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording 10.1 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 76 games (+13.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 70 away games (+9.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games at home (+14.90 Units / 106% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.76 vs San Diego Padres 3.74

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