San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction & Picks – 9/8/2024

• Date: September 8, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Bivens - Giants
  • Joe Musgrove - Padres

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the San Francisco Giants on September 8, 2024, the stakes are high in this National League West showdown. The Padres currently sit with an impressive 81-63 record, while the Giants are struggling at 70-73. In their most recent matchup on September 7, the Padres fell to the Giants 6-3, a game that showcased the Giants' ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Today, the Padres are projected to start Joe Musgrove, who ranks as the 43rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Musgrove has had a solid season with a 4.09 ERA, but his 4.91 xERA suggests he might be due for some regression. In his last outing, he pitched exceptionally well, throwing six innings of shutout ball with eight strikeouts. He faces a Giants lineup that has struggled offensively, ranking 21st overall in MLB.

On the other side, Spencer Bivens is set to take the mound for the Giants. While he boasts a strong 2.86 ERA, his 4.15 xFIP indicates he too may have been fortunate this season. Bivens has had a tough time in his recent appearances, making him a potential target for the potent Padres offense, which ranks 1st in MLB in team batting average.

Despite the Padres' recent loss, projections suggest they have a solid chance to bounce back today, with an implied team total of 4.67 runs. The Padres' offense, led by Jurickson Profar and bolstered by Manny Machado's hot streak, should have the advantage against Bivens. The leading MLB projection system indicates that the Padres are favored to win, and given their overall talent and recent performance, they appear well-positioned to take this game.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Spencer Bivens has been lucky in regards to his ERA this year; his 2.86 rate is a good deal lower than his 4.84 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Patrick Bailey has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (62% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen profiles as the best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Joe Musgrove’s fastball velocity over his last 3 starts (93.2 mph) has been quite a bit higher than than his seasonal rate (92.2 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Jurickson Profar has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 95.9-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 74 games (+11.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 66 away games (+5.65 Units / 8% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 39 games (+10.60 Units / 17% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4 vs San Diego Padres 4.67

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