San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 8/21/2025
The San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres will close out a four-game NL West series on Thursday afternoon. San Diego has won two of the first three games of this series at home and will look for another huge win for their playoff chances today. Before the action begins from San Diego, keep reading to find out more about this game and to get my Giants vs Padres prediction.
Our Giants vs Padres Pick
- Pick: San Diego Padres to win
- Confidence: 4/5
- Get Your Bonus Bets: Claim our Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet $1 and get 20 100% profit boosts for your next 20 bets! Click the Claim Bonus button below to start.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres
- Date & Time: Thursday, August 21, 2025, 4:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers:
- Giants: Justin Verlander (1-9, 4.23 ERA)
- Padres: Dylan Cease (5-11, 4.61 ERA)
- Stadium: PETCO Park, San Diego, CA
- Broadcast: SDPA and NBCS-BA
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Justin Verlander has had a rough season for the Giants so far. He is 1-9 with a 4.23 ERA and a high WHIP. Dylan Cease has struggled at 5-11 with a 4.61 ERA. Cease has better strikeout numbers than Verlander and we are more likely to see Verlander struggle against the power bats of the Padres.
Key Players
Gavin Sheets hit two home runs for the Padres in their win over the Giants on Wednesday. Contributions from bats in the middle of the order like his could be huge for the Padres in this matchup. San Francisco will need more from Rafael Devers and Willy Adames after they went a combined 0-6 on Wednesday.
Recent Team Streaks
- Giants are 2–8 over their last 10 games.
- San Francisco has lost two games in a row coming into tonight.
- The Padres have won two straight games.
- San Diego is 6-4 over its last 10 games.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Manny Machado | Over 0.5 home runs |
| Justin Verlander | Under 4.5 strikeouts |
| Dylan Cease | Over 5.5 strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Padres hold a 9-3 lead in the season series against the Giants.
- San Diego has won five of the last six games between these NL West rivals.
- San Francisco is 26-28 in day games this year.
- San Diego is 28-16 in their day games in 2025.
Giants vs Padres Model Projection
Score Projection: Padres 5 – Giants 3
Win Probability: Padres 62%, Giants 38%
Final Thoughts
The Padres are just one game back of the LA Dodgers in the NL West standings going into today. A win in this game and a Dodgers loss against the Rockies would move San Diego into a tie for first place going into their huge series with the Dodgers over the weekend. I think we see the Padres hold up their end of the bargain with a win over a struggling Verlander and the rest of the Giants.
