San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 4/30/2025

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

On April 30, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the San Francisco Giants in a pivotal National League West matchup at Petco Park. Both teams are enjoying solid seasons, with the Padres sitting at 18-11 and the Giants slightly ahead at 19-11. This game marks the second in their series, following a tightly contested opener that showcased the high stakes of their rivalry.

The Padres will send Michael King to the mound, who has been impressive this season with a 3-1 record and an excellent ERA of 2.18. King is currently ranked as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, and he projects to strike out 7.2 batters while allowing only 2.0 earned runs today. However, he may be due for a regression, as his xFIP of 3.24 suggests he has been a bit fortunate.

Opposing him will be Landen Roupp, who holds a 2-1 record and an average ERA of 4.56. Roupp has a high strikeout rate of 27.4%, but he faces a Padres offense that ranks 1st in the league for fewest strikeouts. This mismatch could favor the Padres, as they may capitalize on Roupp’s inability to dominate against low-strikeout teams.

Offensively, the Padres rank 5th in team batting average, while the Giants are struggling at 22nd. Despite the Giants having a better overall record, the projections suggest that the Padres could outperform their low implied team total of 3.70 runs. With both bullpens ranked in the top 5, expect a closely contested battle, but the advantage may lean toward San Diego given the current form of their ace and the offensive trends.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Given that flyball batters struggle against flyball pitchers, Landen Roupp (44.8% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 FB hitters in the opposing team's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Heliot Ramos is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Given the 0.72 discrepancy between Michael King's 10.91 K/9 and his 10.19 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors this year as it relates to strikeouts and should see negative regression the rest of the season.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The San Francisco Giants have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jason Heyward has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the San Diego Padres with a 19.3% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.42 Units / 18% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jason Heyward has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.05 Units / 29% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.56, San Diego Padres 3.4

• Date: April 30, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Landen Roupp - Giants
  • Michael King - Padres

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