San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Pick – 8/18/2025
The San Francisco Giants will face the San Diego Padres on Monday night at Petco Park in San Diego. The Padres enter the game as favorites and they will be desperate for a win after a disastrous weekend against the LA Dodgers. This game has huge implications as both teams are in the playoff hunt. I have broken this game down from a betting standpoint and you can find my Giants vs Padres prediction for Monday night below.
Our Giants vs Padres Pick
- Pick: Giants to win
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres
- Date & Time: Monday, August 18, 2025, 9:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Robbie Ray (Giants) vs Nestor Cortes (Padres)
- Stadium: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Robbie Ray has been a consistent performer for the Giants this year. He enters this start with a 9-6 record and a 2.98 ERA. He has recorded 152 strikeouts in 148 innings pitched and his return to form has been a big boost for the Giants in 2025. Nestor Cortes has a 1-1 record and a 5.71 ERA. He has only pitched 17.1 innings due to injuries. He will look to give his team a much-needed quality start tonight.
Key Players
The entire Padres lineup is key going into this contest. The Padres scored a total of six runs in their three games against the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend. The Padres lost all three of those games and dropped to second place in the NL West standings as a result. San Diego needs more offensive output if they are going to get a victory here.
Recent Team Streaks
Both of these teams are not playing their best baseball of late. The Giants snapped a long losing streak with a win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday. And the Padres were swept by the Dodgers in the biggest series of the season for the Padres so far. Both teams will be desperate to get back on track in this series.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
| Robbie Ray | Over 6.5 Strikeouts |
| Heliot Ramos | Over 0.5 RBI |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Padres hold a 7-2 lead in their season series against the Giants.
- The Padres have won the last three meetings between these teams.
- San Diego is 2-0 at home against the Giants so far in 2025.
Giants vs Padres Model Projection
- Score Projection: Giants 5 – Padres 3
- Win Probability: Giants 56.5%, Padres 43.5%
Final Thoughts
If Nestor Cortes was healthy and pitching at his previous All-Star level, I’d love the Padres in this spot. But that is not the world we are living in. Cortes has struggled in his limited action this year and the Padres are struggling as a whole right now. I’ll take the Giants to win on the road behind a strong pitching performance from Robbie Ray, as things go from bad to worse for the Padres.
