San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 4/16/2025

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the San Francisco Giants on April 16, 2025, in what shapes up to be an intriguing National League matchup. Both teams enter this game with solid records, as the Phillies stand at 10-7 while the Giants boast a 12-5 mark. The stakes are high, especially since this is the third game in their series, and both teams are looking to gain an edge. Notably, the Phillies are coming off a strong performance, having secured a victory in their last outing.

Aaron Nola is projected to start for the Phillies, despite struggling this season with a Win/Loss record of 0-3 and an ERA of 5.51. His advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as his 3.60 xFIP indicates room for improvement. Nola's ability to pitch 5.8 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs on average could be key, particularly against a Giants lineup that has hit 21 home runs this season, ranking 6th in MLB.

On the other hand, Robbie Ray takes the mound for the Giants, enjoying a stellar start with a 3-0 record and an impressive ERA of 2.93. However, his 5.41 xFIP hints at potential regression. Ray's average of 5.5 innings pitched and 2.7 earned runs allowed could be susceptible to a Phillies offense that ranks 15th overall but has shown the ability to draw walks, which may exploit Ray's high walk rate of 16.1%.

With the Phillies favored at -140, the projections suggest they have a better chance of exceeding their implied team total of 4.01 runs, especially given the Giants' bullpen, ranked 2nd in MLB, which could play a crucial role in late-game scenarios. As both teams vie for momentum in this tightly contested series, fans can expect a battle of wills between Nola and Ray, with the outcome potentially hinging on which pitcher can better navigate the opposing lineup.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The Philadelphia Phillies have 6 bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Robbie Ray in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.296) may lead us to conclude that Tyler Fitzgerald has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his .354 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Wilmer Flores pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.3% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Out of all SPs, Aaron Nola's fastball velocity of 92.4 mph grades out in the 25th percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

J.T. Realmuto's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 45.2% to 62.5%.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

The Philadelphia Phillies have done a bad job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 10.7° figure is among the lowest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (#29 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 81 away games (+15.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• LaMonte Wade Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.70 Units / 54% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.12, Philadelphia Phillies 4.26

• Date: April 16, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Robbie Ray - Giants
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies

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