San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 4/15/2025

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

On April 15, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the San Francisco Giants at Citizens Bank Park in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. The Phillies are off to a solid start this season with a 9-7 record, while the Giants have surged ahead with a strong 12-4 mark. The Giants are currently riding high after a recent impressive win, but the stakes are high for the Phillies as they look to gain ground in the standings.

The matchup features two starting pitchers with contrasting performances thus far. Jesus Luzardo, projected to start for the Phillies, has been stellar with a 2-0 record and an excellent ERA of 1.50. His high strikeout rate of 36.2% could give him an edge against a Giants offense that ranks 5th in MLB for strikeouts. Luzardo's ability to limit earned runs—projected at 2.4 today—should play a crucial role in keeping the Giants at bay.

On the other hand, Justin Verlander, starting for San Francisco, has struggled with a 6.92 ERA. Although he has the potential to improve, his peripherals suggest he has faced some bad luck this season. The Phillies' offense, while ranked 15th overall, boasts a patient approach that could exploit Verlander's high walk rate of 9.7%. With an implied team total of 4.35 runs, the projections indicate that the Phillies should have opportunities to score.

Overall, while both teams have their strengths, the Phillies may have the upper hand in this matchup, especially given Luzardo's recent form and the Giants' inconsistent offense. As the game approaches, expect the Phillies to capitalize on their home advantage.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Justin Verlander's 2461-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 89th percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Patrick Bailey has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.7-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 92.6-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Wilmer Flores pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.3% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Because flyball hitters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Jesus Luzardo (35.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 3 FB hitters in the opposing team's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme flyball hitters like Johan Rojas tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Justin Verlander.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Philadelphia Phillies have done a poor job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 10.7° figure is among the lowest in the game since the start of last season (#29 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 67 of their last 118 games (+9.70 Units / 7% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 away games (+9.70 Units / 35% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.25, Philadelphia Phillies 4.25

• Date: April 15, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Verlander - Giants
  • Jesus Luzardo - Phillies

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