San Francisco Giants vs New York Yankees Pick – 4/11/2025

San Francisco Giants vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On April 11, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the San Francisco Giants in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup at Yankee Stadium. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Yankees sitting at 7-5 and the Giants at 9-3. The Yankees come into this game with the best offense in MLB, boasting top ranks in team batting average (3rd) and home runs (2nd). Meanwhile, the Giants have been more average overall, ranking 17th in MLB offensively.

In this matchup, the Yankees will send Marcus Stroman to the mound, who has struggled early this season with a 7.27 ERA. While his xFIP suggests he may improve, he hasn't shown it yet. Stroman's high walk rate (10.5 BB%) could be a concern against the Giants' disciplined lineup, which ranks 5th in fewest walks drawn. On the other side, Robbie Ray, projected to start for the Giants, has been solid with a 3.18 ERA and a perfect 2-0 record. However, his high flyball rate (50 FB%) could play into the Yankees' power-hitting strengths, especially with their 26 home runs this season.

The Yankees enter this game with a stronger implied team total of 4.19 runs, reflecting their potent offense. With the Giants' bullpen ranked 2nd in MLB, they may pose a challenge if the game remains close. The projections suggest that the Yankees have a solid chance to capitalize on their offensive advantage, especially given Stroman's potential for improvement despite his current struggles. Overall, this game promises to be a competitive affair, with both teams looking to build momentum as the season progresses.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #3 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Marcus Stroman's slider utilization has spiked by 17.3% from last season to this one (16.3% to 33.6%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

It may be wise to expect negative regression for the New York Yankees offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the luckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.20 Units / 66% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 80 away games (+6.85 Units / 6% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.17, New York Yankees 4.06

• Date: April 11, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Robbie Ray - Giants
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees

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