San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 24, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants
  • Christian Scott - Mets

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League matchup, the New York Mets will host the San Francisco Giants at Citi Field on May 24, 2024. The Mets, who are having a rough season with a record of 21-28, will aim to turn their fortunes around against the Giants, who have had an average season with a record of 25-26.

The Mets will send right-handed pitcher Christian Scott to the mound, while the Giants will counter with left-handed pitcher Kyle Harrison. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Scott is ranked as the #44 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his proficiency on the mound. In contrast, Harrison is considered a weaker pitcher by MLB standards.

Scott has started three games this year and has a win/loss record of 0-2. His ERA stands at 4.32, which is average, but advanced statistics suggest that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. In comparison, Harrison has started ten games and boasts a solid 4-1 record with a 3.60 ERA.

The Mets' offense ranks as the 18th best in MLB, while the Giants' offense sits at 14th. However, the Mets have struggled in team batting average, ranking 24th, while the Giants have struggled in stolen bases, ranking 29th. Both teams have performed averagely in terms of home runs.

In their last game, the Mets faced the Guardians and suffered a 6-3 loss. The Giants, on the other hand, emerged victorious against the Pirates with a 7-6 win. These contrasting outcomes highlight the unpredictability of baseball.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Mets as the favorites for this game, with a projected win probability of 56%. The Giants, meanwhile, are considered underdogs with a projected win probability of 44%. Based on the current odds, the Mets have an average implied team total of 4.01 runs, while the Giants have a lower implied team total of 3.49 runs.

With the Mets aiming to bounce back and the Giants looking to continue their average season, this game promises to be an exciting clash between two National League teams. As the first game in the series, both teams will be eager to make a strong impression. Baseball fans can expect a competitive matchup at Citi Field.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Kyle Harrison will average a total of 4.8 singles in this outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

This season, there has been a decline in Patrick Bailey's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.17 ft/sec last year to 25.64 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen projects as the 2nd-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Christian Scott will hold the platoon advantage over 6 opposing batters today... and will be extra-advantaged due to his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (58.5) provides evidence that Starling Marte has suffered from bad luck this year with his 15.6 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Harrison Bader hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+9.55 Units / 40% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.05 Units / 54% ROI)
• Tomas Nido has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 16 games (+10.00 Units / 62% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.74 vs New York Mets 4.21

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